Quick Take:

• Polymarket assigns 45% likelihood of victory to both Trump and Biden for the U.S. presidency.
• Other election contracts suggest a 35% chance of a Republican sweep and a 27% chance of Democratic Senate control.
• Michelle Obama holds 5%, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds 3% odds.
• Uncertainty persists over House and Senate control.

In a surprising turn of events, the Polymarket prediction market has thrown the U.S. presidential race into a deadlock, with both former President Donald Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden standing at a 45% chance of victory. This divergence from traditional polls suggests a level of uncertainty that has captivated bettors and analysts alike.

The fervor surrounding the election has translated into unprecedented activity on Polymarket, with a staggering $124.43 million wagered on various outcomes. Of this sum, $28.25 million has been placed on or against the two frontrunners, reflecting the intensity of interest in their prospects.

While Trump and Biden share the spotlight with equal probability, other contenders linger in the background. Former first lady Michelle Obama commands a 5% chance, while wildcard candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds a 3% stake in the market’s predictions. However, it’s evident that the presence of these longshot contenders has favored Biden, as reflected in market data showing a slight decline for Trump over the past month.

This deadlock on Polymarket contrasts sharply with the narratives presented by national polls. Despite the market’s uncertainty, polls aggregated by 538 suggest a marginal lead for Trump, while 270toWin gives him a slightly wider margin. However, the disparity among pollsters is striking, with some granting Trump a significant advantage, while others favor Biden or align with Polymarket’s assessment of a tie.

For instance, polls conducted by Harris in collaboration with Harvard depict a comfortable seven-point lead for Trump in a five-way race, including Biden, RFK Jr., and two additional candidates. Similarly, a late April poll by CNN positions Trump with a commanding nine-point advantage. Conversely, TIPP Insights and YouGov’s poll for The Economist echo Polymarket’s projection of a dead heat between Trump and Biden.

As the election draws nearer, the convergence or divergence of prediction markets and polls will continue to shape the narrative surrounding the race. The uncertainty reflected in Polymarket’s deadlock underscores the complexity of the electoral landscape and the unpredictable nature of political dynamics. In this climate of uncertainty, bettors and observers alike brace themselves for a tumultuous journey towards November’s outcome.