QUICK TAKE

• Polymarket bettors are skeptical that Trump and Biden will shake hands during the first 2024 presidential debate.
• Prediction markets also speculate on whether The Guardian will correct an article critical of prediction markets.
• Forecasters on prediction markets don’t foresee an Edmonton Stanley Cup victory.

In the realm of prediction markets, a spotlight has been cast on the upcoming 2024 presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. The traditional handshake, a symbol of civility and respect in U.S. presidential debates, may be absent this year. According to Polymarket bettors, there is significant doubt that the two candidates will exchange this customary gesture during the debate scheduled for June 27.

Polymarket, a prominent prediction market, allows individuals to bet on various outcomes by purchasing shares. The market contract for the handshake reads, “This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if Donald Trump and Joe Biden shake hands at any point immediately before, during, or immediately after the first in-person presidential debate in the 2024 election cycle.” Currently, “yes” shares are trading at 32 cents, indicating a perceived 32% probability that the handshake will occur.

For those unfamiliar with prediction markets, the concept is straightforward: participants buy shares predicting specific outcomes, and those who guess correctly are rewarded with $1 per share. Incorrect predictions result in no earnings. The share price reflects the collective belief in the likelihood of an event; thus, a 32-cent share suggests a 32% chance of the event happening.

The tradition of handshakes at presidential debates dates back four decades, symbolizing mutual respect despite political differences. However, this tradition has seen interruptions, most notably during the 2016 election cycle, when debates became more contentious. In 2020, the absence of a handshake between Biden and Trump was due to COVID-19 protocols, not solely due to the acrimonious nature of their relationship.

Beyond the handshake, prediction markets are also buzzing with speculation about The Guardian, a UK newspaper. Manifold forecasters are betting on whether the newspaper will correct an article perceived as unflattering to prediction markets. This scenario highlights how prediction markets extend beyond politics, influencing media and public perception.

Moreover, prediction markets are not confident about an Edmonton Stanley Cup victory. Both prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks show little faith in Edmonton clinching the title, reflecting broader skepticism about the team’s chances this season.

As June 27 approaches, the debate’s handshake (or lack thereof) remains a focal point in prediction markets. The absence of a handshake in recent years, driven by increasing political hostility and public health concerns, raises questions about whether this tradition will be revived.

Historically, handshakes at debates have been a visual testament to the democratic process, emphasizing that despite fierce political competition, there remains a baseline of respect between candidates. The 2024 debate cycle, however, is shaping up to be different. The sentiment on Polymarket suggests that many believe the political climate may be too charged for such a gesture of goodwill.

The 2016 election cycle marked a turning point in the tone and tenor of presidential debates. As political discourse became more heated, the customary handshake fell by the wayside. The subsequent 2020 debates, conducted under the shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic, further cemented the break from this tradition. The absence of a handshake was a stark visual representation of the changed nature of political engagement in the United States.

In this context, the skepticism on Polymarket is not unfounded. The heightened partisanship and contentious atmosphere surrounding modern presidential campaigns make a return to traditional norms like the debate handshake seem increasingly unlikely.

Furthermore, the speculation around The Guardian’s article correction underscores the broader influence of prediction markets. These platforms are not just limited to political events but also shape narratives in the media and public discourse. The outcome of this bet will be closely watched, offering insights into how prediction markets can impact media accountability and credibility.

Meanwhile, the lack of confidence in an Edmonton Stanley Cup victory highlights the predictive power of these markets in the realm of sports. The collective judgment of bettors often provides a more nuanced perspective than traditional sportsbooks, reflecting deeper insights into team performance and potential outcomes.

As the first 2024 presidential debate draws near, the potential handshake between Trump and Biden remains a symbolically loaded gesture. Whether it happens or not will be seen, but the discourse surrounding it reflects the evolving nature of political rituals in an increasingly polarized landscape. The outcome of the Polymarket bet will not only settle the question of the handshake but also illustrate the predictive capabilities and societal impact of these platforms.