QuickTake:

• President Biden’s reelection chances linger at 11% on Polymarket.
• Odds of Biden dropping out remain around 64%.
• Biden’s ABC News interview showed more coherence but didn’t impact prediction markets.
• Polymarket sees increased trading volume amid election season.

In the world of crypto-based prediction markets, U.S. President Joe Biden’s reelection odds remain largely stagnant following his recent televised interview on ABC News. Despite a more coherent performance in the interview with George Stephanopoulos compared to his debate a week prior, traders on Polymarket did not significantly adjust their predictions regarding his political future.

Polymarket, a decentralized platform that allows users to bet on the outcomes of various events using cryptocurrency, reflects current sentiment toward Biden’s chances in the upcoming election. For the contract speculating on who will win the presidency in November, “yes” shares for Biden were trading at 11 cents shortly after the interview aired. This represents a slight drop from the 12 cents prior to the broadcast, indicating an 11% chance of Biden winning reelection.

Each share on Polymarket pays out $1 (in USDC, a stablecoin pegged to the dollar) if the prediction comes true, and nothing if it does not. A month ago, these shares were trading at 36 cents, but Biden’s poor performance in the debate against former President Donald Trump caused a significant drop in his perceived odds. This drastic change highlights the volatility and sensitivity of prediction markets to public appearances and perceived political performance.

Adding to the pressure, Senator Mark Warner (D-Va.) is reportedly rallying fellow Democrats to persuade Biden to drop out of the race, according to the Washington Post. This movement within the Democratic Party suggests increasing doubts about Biden’s viability as a candidate, further reflected in the prediction markets.

Polymarket’s presidential winner contract is the platform’s largest, with $229 million in bets placed. This high volume underscores the significant interest and stakes involved in the upcoming election. However, Biden’s prospects for securing the Democratic nomination appear slightly more optimistic. In the contract asking who will win the Democratic nomination, Biden’s odds increased by one percentage point after the interview, reaching 42%. This contract has seen $89 million staked, indicating strong engagement from traders.

Meanwhile, a third contract speculates on whether Biden will drop out of the race entirely. This contract saw a slight uptick in odds, with a three-point increase to 65%, and $12 million riding on the outcome. This indicates a considerable belief among traders that Biden may not see his campaign through to the election.

Polymarket, which launched four years ago, has experienced a surge in trading volume this year as the U.S. election approaches. June marked the platform’s first month exceeding $100 million in volume, a testament to the growing enthusiasm for political betting. The platform has also garnered recognition for its early indication of concerns about Biden’s cognitive health, as reflected in the trading levels of the “Biden drops out?” contract. This early signal came before mainstream media outlets began addressing the issue seriously, showcasing the predictive power and insight of decentralized markets.

The stagnant odds for Biden’s reelection despite a seemingly improved performance in the ABC interview suggest that traders remain skeptical about his chances. This skepticism is likely fueled by his previous debate performance, ongoing discussions within the Democratic Party about his candidacy, and broader concerns about his health and capability to lead.

As the election season progresses, the activity on Polymarket and other prediction platforms will continue to provide a barometer of public sentiment and expectations. These platforms offer a unique and real-time glimpse into the collective mindset of politically engaged individuals, reflecting how events and developments are perceived by a diverse group of traders.

In conclusion, President Biden’s odds of reelection on Polymarket remain largely unchanged following his recent ABC News interview. Despite a more coherent appearance, the prediction market continues to reflect significant doubts about his chances, with a substantial probability that he may drop out of the race. As election day draws closer, the dynamics on platforms like Polymarket will undoubtedly evolve, capturing the shifting tides of political fortune and public opinion.